Frequently asked questions

A macro scenario-projection tool. You define a macro view — moves in rates, oil, inflation, the dollar, unemployment, plus context flags — and it replays the historical episodes that match it to project nine markets forward, with a Bayesian read on the current cycle regime.

No. Historacle is a research and analysis instrument. Historical analog forecasting and regime-switching models are legitimate analytical techniques, but they are not predictions and nothing here is investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Always do your own research.

Authoritative sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) for historical series, EIA STEO for energy forecasts, Fed SEP and the Philadelphia Fed SPF for consensus, and a curated Wall Street aggregate for S&P targets. Equity and futures prices come from a third-party market-data provider.

Projections are scenario-conditional ranges, not point predictions. They describe how markets behaved under similar historical conditions and what the macro relationships imply — shown as percentile cones precisely because the future is uncertain. They should inform your thinking, not replace it.

The historical-analog cone shows what actually happened in matched historical episodes; the statistical cone shows what the estimated macro relationships independently imply. Seeing both — and the blended projection — tells you whether a projection rests on real precedent or on extrapolation.

No account is needed to use the core engine. The hosted app serves up-to-date data out of the box; if you self-host, add a free FRED API key for fresh series, otherwise it falls back to bundled sample data.

Underlying series update as their sources publish — monthly for most macro indicators, monthly for EIA energy forecasts, and quarterly for Fed SEP and SPF consensus — and we refresh our copy daily. The app shows a data-source badge with the last-updated time so you always know what's current.

Yes. Every scenario encodes into a URL. Copy the link and your colleague opens the exact sliders, flags, and selected analog — no export or account required.

This is the beta of the hosted hub. The core scenario engine is free to use. Paid plans shown on the pricing page are indicative of where persistence, history, exports, and team collaboration are headed.