Frequently asked questions

A macro scenario-projection tool. You define a macro view — moves in rates, energy, inflation, the dollar, unemployment, gold, copper, plus context flags — and it replays the historical episodes that match it to project ten markets forward, with a Bayesian read on the current cycle regime.

Historacle is a research and analysis instrument, not a broker or advisor. It helps you pressure-test macro views with historical evidence, calibrated ranges, and regime context so your own judgment is better informed.

Authoritative sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) for historical series, EIA STEO for energy forecasts, Fed SEP and the Philadelphia Fed SPF for consensus, and a curated Wall Street aggregate for S&P targets. Equity and futures prices come from a third-party market-data provider.

Historacle is built to be right about the RANGE, not to call a number. It shows calibrated ranges, matched historical outcomes, and whether a model beats simple baselines — and it withholds outputs that do not earn their place. Nobody reliably predicts a 12-month index level, ourselves included; treating that honestly is the point. The full scored record is maintained internally and reviewed continuously rather than published as a marketing figure.

The historical-analog cone shows what actually happened in matched historical episodes; the statistical cone shows what the estimated macro relationships independently imply. Seeing both — and the blended projection — tells you whether a projection rests on real precedent or on extrapolation.

The hosted app at /app requires a free account and beta approval (invite or waitlist). Self-hosters need a free FRED API key for live indicator data; without it the engine falls back to bundled sample data. EIA is optional for oil/natgas consensus refresh.

Underlying series update as their sources publish — monthly for most macro indicators, monthly for EIA energy forecasts, and quarterly for Fed SEP and SPF consensus — and we refresh our copy daily. The app shows a data-source badge with the last-updated time so you always know what's current.

Yes. Every scenario encodes into a URL. Copy the link and your colleague opens the exact sliders, flags, and selected analog — once they have beta access to /app.

This is the beta of the hosted hub. The core scenario engine is free to use. Paid plans shown on the pricing page are indicative of where persistence, history, exports, and team collaboration are headed.