The historical episode archive

Economic recovery with AI boom, Fed holds steady.

Global tariff escalation triggers market drop, Fed pauses cuts.

Fed pivots to cutting; soft landing confirmed; AI investment drives equities.

Fed hikes last time; inflation falling without recession. 'Immaculate disinflation.'

Silicon Valley Bank collapses; regional bank contagion, FDIC intervenes.

UK LDI pension crisis; 10Y reaches 4.7%; Fed signals higher-for-longer.

Aggressive Fed rate hikes in response to post-pandemic inflation surge.

Largest Chinese developer defaults; property sector contraction; demand-side commodity shock.

CPI prints above 5%; Fed insists 'transitory'; taper talk begins mid-year.

Biden $1.9T stimulus; vaccine rollout accelerates; reflation trade drives yield spike.

Pfizer vaccine (Nov 9) triggers massive rotation to cyclicals; yields begin rising.

Pandemic demand collapse and emergency Fed cuts to zero; massive fiscal response.

2Y/10Y inverts; recession fears; Fed cuts 25bps in Sept, Oct, then pauses.

Powell pivots to 'patient', then cuts 3x as insurance; stocks recover to new highs.

Lira −40% vs USD; Fed hiking into EM stress; Argentina also forced to IMF.

Powell hikes too far; S&P falls 20% peak-to-trough as financial conditions tighten.

Gradual Fed hikes amid strong growth; reversed in 2019 amid trade war fears.

Strong global growth; Fed hikes 3x, dollar weakens despite rate rises.

Trump victory triggers bond selloff, dollar surge on fiscal stimulus expectations.

UK votes Leave; yields crash, equities tumble then recover as central banks ease.

Oil hits $26, China devalues again; stocks plunge 10% in Jan, then recover.

Surprise cap removal; CHF +30% intraday; multiple FX brokerages fail; carry-trade unwind.

PBOC surprise devaluation triggers global selloff; VIX spikes above 40.

First rate hike after 7 years at zero; measured pace amid EM volatility.

Brent falls 50%+ as US shale boom meets OPEC refusal to cut; EM stress.

Bernanke hints at tapering QE; 10Y yields spike 130bps in weeks.

Draghi pledges unlimited OMT bond-buying; Eurozone crisis peaks and turns.

Greek, Italian, Spanish sovereign spreads blow out; ECB eventually acts as backstop.

Flash crash in May; Greek crisis begins; risk-off despite Fed on hold.

Fed at zero bound for ~7 years; multiple QE rounds; secular low-vol, low-yield, asset-inflation regime.

S&P 500 bottoms; Fed launches QE1, buying $1.7T in assets. Massive V-shaped recovery.

Housing collapse triggering banking crisis and severe recession.

Bear Stearns hedge funds collapse; subprime contagion spreads, Fed starts cutting.

Fed pauses at 5.25%; yield curve inverts, signaling future recession.

Greenspan's 'conundrum': Fed hikes 175bps but long rates stay low; housing surges.

Fed begins hiking from 1%; oil rising on China demand; housing boom continues.

Iraq invasion; Fed cuts to 1%, stocks begin bull market, dollar falls persistently.

S&P bottoms after 49% decline; Sarbanes-Oxley passes, Fed holds near 1%.

$95B sovereign default; corralito deposit freeze; convertibility plan abandoned.

Tech collapse and geopolitical shock triggering mild recession; Fed cuts aggressively.

Nasdaq peaks in March 2000 and collapses; Fed begins cutting in Jan 2001.

Fed hikes 75bps; yields rise, tech stocks surge into year-end before bust.

Russian sovereign default and LTCM collapse; Fed cuts 75bps as contagion spreads.

Thai baht collapse triggers contagion across Asia; flight-to-quality into US Treasuries.

Soft landing achieved; strong growth, low inflation, equities melt up.

Three 25bps cuts as insurance; stocks surge into year-end. Goldilocks begins.

Peso devaluation; US$50B Treasury+IMF bailout; EM contagion across LatAm.

Fed doubled rates from 3% to 6% in 12 months, triggering a global bond selloff.

Clinton's deficit reduction plan; bond market rally, dollar weak, equities grind higher.

Soros breaks the Bank of England; UK forced out of European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Soviet dissolution; ruble convertibility shock; flight to USD assets; oil supply uncertainty into 1992.

Gulf War ends; Fed cuts aggressively, stocks recover sharply from recession lows.

Nikkei from 39k → 8k over 13y; persistent deflation; zero-bound monetary policy; balance-sheet recession.

Oil shock from Iraq invasion of Kuwait combined with S&L crisis and credit crunch.

Savings & Loan collapse; Fed begins cutting as economy slows.

Rising yields and program trading trigger 22% single-day crash; Fed floods liquidity.

G5 coordinates dollar weakening; DXY falls ~30% over next two years. Fed eases.

Fed resumes hiking after brief 1982-83 ease; strong dollar era peaks.

Mexico default; cascading EM defaults across LatAm; 'lost decade' for emerging markets begins.

Volcker abruptly reverses after deep recession; yields fall sharply, stocks surge.

Volcker drives Fed funds to 20%; stagflation era, oil spike from Iranian revolution.

Iranian revolution disrupts oil supply; crude doubles; Volcker begins aggressive tightening.

Arab oil embargo after Yom Kippur War; crude quadruples, stagflation sets in, stocks crash 42%.

USD/gold convertibility suspended; 90-day wage-price freeze; secular floating-rate regime begins.

Post-WWII reconstruction; pegged USD/gold; secular 20-year bull market; low inflation, full employment.